Increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 and other GHG gases will lead to a warming world. Yet CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a vital part of our natural world. More CO2 will mean more growing things, and more rain. A warming world is also likely to result in global changes in weather, with more rain in some parts of the world and less rain in some other parts of the world. These things will be uncomfortable for people everywhere. Adaptation is not easy!
Adaptation difficulties
Adaptation may be possible for the changes in temperature and rainfall, but it will be more difficult for many nations to adapt to the projected melting of Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet and Glaciers. The anticipated potential increase in sea level rise is enormous.
Yet it is not clear whether current projections of this melting will happen. These seem to be entirely based on the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Black carbon and incompletely burned diesel are known contributing factors, which leading climate scientists do not seem to have sufficiently taken into account in relation to the impact on ice and snow warming, at least in their published positions.
How much of the melting is from black carbon and incompletely burned diesel? We know that some is from it. Study has already been made in this area.
We can only hope that further study will be made of this issue.
Black Carbon
Statistical analysis of the black carbon data seems to show that the cooling impact of black carbon (from reflecting the sun rays into space) is greater than the warming impact (from reducing the albedo from snow and ice). Beyond this, statistical analysis of temperature changes is unlikely to help us: we need more scientific study of the physical facts. Further study is likely to show the beneficial effects of efforts to cut black carbon from coal-fired generators (via exhaust controls) and from the improved efficiency of diesel engines. More efforts should be made to fully implement changes the lead the reduction of black carbon emissions..
Arctic sea ice can give us a guide. Its smallest extent was in 2012, at 3.6 million square kilometers. This was when the global average temperature anomaly was 0.64 C, but in 2021 and 2022, when the global average temperature anomaly was 0.84 C, the minimum extent was around 4.9 million square kilometers. This is encouraging. We await the news from 2023, and expect that it will give rise to more encouraging news. If this happens, it should prompt even faster moves to cut black carbon.
A slightly different measure, but which provides a similar picture is the EPA’s graph of snow cover in the USA. This has increased since 2021, which is a good thing.
Another encouraging sign is that a warming temperature seems to have had no noticeable effect on the loss of ice cover in the Arctic, using a conventional statistical analysis that incorporates the exclusion of warming from loss of sea ice.,” calculated soot from burning coal, and calculated incomplete burning of diesel fuel.
The soot from burning of coal and the black carbon from the incomplete burning of diesel fuel, for the period up to 2000 can be taken from An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence. My statistical analysis, up to 2021, fully vindicates the assessment of coal-fired generation soot, and of the effect of diesel, found in this report.
However, this analysis is strongly influenced by the figures for the years from 2001 to 2021. My figures for this period are deduced from the changes to sea ice minimum extent, being partially guided by the known new regulations in the USA and EU to improve diesel efficiency. In regard to coal, it includes the assumption that the recent cut in sulphur emissions from China’s coal-fired generators has also reduced their soot output. It is assumed that changes in black carbon have not been the result of amount of coal and diesel being used, but in the post processing and improved efficiency of their used.
At least one can conclude that GHGs, so far, have not caused the ice to melt in the arctic ocean. In other words, one could say that it has not yet been demonstrated that the melting of ice sheets in Greenland, Antarctica and Glaciers has been caused by GHGs. Therefore, the priority must be on establishing the truth or otherwise of the proposition I have put forward as well as the full implementation of the main measures to cut Black Carbon, which are clearly required in any case.
CO2 contribution to a Warming World
CO2 is the main contributor to a warming world. However, CO2 provides an essential role in our world, since it is necessary for photosynthesis. In this process, plants take in CO2 and water and these elements are transformed into oxygen and glucose.
Against the current assertion that CO2 is a pollutant, a higher level of CO2 in the atmosphere results in higher yielding crops. More CO2 will result in more food being available, all other things being equal. Even those arguing for a cut in CO2 emissions are prepared to accept this case.
However, there is a point when higher temperatures will result in a net loss of ice cover in Greenland, Antarctica and other semi-permanent ice locations, such as glaciers. We probably haven’t passed this point, but until climate scientists have resolved the question of whether the losses over the last 50 years are due to black carbon pollution or due to temperature increases, this remains unsettled. The evidence of the last few years indicates that the reduction in ice cover is due to black carbon.
Also CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas. While there are some GHGs we can control, we cannot control the level of water vapour in the atmosphere. It is the largest by far of the greenhouse gases, but it is controlled by the natural cycle of interchange between the earth and its atmosphere. We learnt last year that a volcanic eruption could change this nice balance.
There is no doubt that the Hunga-Tonga volcano that erupted in January 2022 increased the water vapour in the atmosphere. Yet this did not happen due to our actions: it was not a consequence of anthropogenic actions. Mankind is not responsible for it, but mankind had better prepare itself for its continuing impact. This impact of this single volcanic eruption is expected to go on for up to a decade, or even more. Adaptation is the key here.
Yet no one is defending the increase in the other greenhouses gases: namely, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. Methane is the biggest contributor to global warming after water vapour and CO2, and it is theoretically possible to eliminate all the anthropogenic sources of methane emissions. The 30% cut proposed in COP26 Glasgow, would be a good start, and the latest graph from Mauna Loa suggests some downturn since then. Much more is required and much more can be done.
Conclusion
I suspect that black carbon from the lack of appropriate post-processes in some coal-fired generation and incomplete combustion of diesel is the major reason for the loss of ice cover and a significant cause of warming. This is a hypothesis that should be explored so that it can be either accepted or rejected. Until that is done, action on climate change remains a political football and consensus will remain elusive.
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